The Power of Balanced Forecasting

What makes Predict truly different is its comprehensive approach to industry intelligence. The conference combines two critical elements that most industry events treat separately:

• Quantitative Foundation: Hard data from the CEIR Index provides the metrics that matter most – square footage trends, exhibitor participation rates, attendance patterns, and revenue trajectories. This data-driven foundation ensures decisions are grounded in measurable reality.
• Qualitative Intelligence: Thought leadership insights explore the human factors driving exhibition success, from evolving attendee engagement patterns to emerging user experience expectations. These qualitative elements provide the context that transforms raw data into actionable strategy.

This powerful combination delivers the complete picture that industry leaders need to make strategic decisions with genuine confidence.

A Lineup Designed for Strategic Advantage

The 2025 program brings together world-class experts across multiple disciplines, each offering unique insights into the forces shaping our industry’s future:

Global Economic Intelligence

Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel Nicolaus, will provide comprehensive macroeconomic analysis, covering everything from growth projections to monetary policy implications and their direct impact on exhibition businesses.

“The exhibition industry operates at the intersection of global commerce and economic trends, making it uniquely sensitive to macroeconomic shifts,” said Piegza. “Understanding the broader picture of today’s fast-changing economic environment – from Federal Reserve policy decisions to international trade dynamics – isn’t just valuable, it’s essential for strategic planning. I will be breaking down the complex economic indicators that directly impact exhibition businesses, translating macro-level trends into actionable insights that can inform everything from venue investments to event timing decisions.”

Industry-Specific Market Analysis

Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company), will present the latest CEIR Index insights, demonstrating how to leverage sector-specific data for more accurate forecasting and opportunity identification.

“The exhibition industry is facing heightened uncertainty as trade policy affect corporate investment decisions,” said Sacks. “At the same time, CEIR Index fundamentals point toward resilience. I’m looking forward to delving into the latest data and identifying areas of opportunity and exposures to downside risk for individual sectors.”

Geopolitical Risk Navigation

Jonathan Wood, Principal with Control Risks, will map the complex terrain of global risks affecting exhibitions, from supply chain disruptions to regulatory changes and market volatility that could impact international events.

“Given the current geopolitical disruptions, exhibition organizers cannot treat international events as business as usual,” said Wood. “From sudden visa restrictions or conflicts that can derail major trade shows to supply chain disruptions that impact everything from booth construction to catering, the risks are real and costly. I will map out the specific geopolitical flashpoints that could impact your business events in the next 18 months – and more importantly, show you how to build resilience into your planning before crisis strikes.”

Experience Economy Mastery

Jim Gilmore, co-author of “The Experience Economy” and co-founder of Strategic Horizons LLP, will reveal how to design experiences that transform time into your most valuable currency, creating deeper connections with all stakeholders.

“The term ‘experience’ has been familiar to practitioners in the exhibitions and events industry for decades,” said Gilmore. “I hope to provide CEIR Predict participants – both those who have not read ‘The Experience Economy’ and those who have read it – useful perspective on the myriad ways to apply experience-thinking, as well as some practical tools for designing truly engaging experiences.”

Power Shifts and Storylines: Navigating Global Change and Media Influence

Nicholas Johnston, Publisher of Axios, will join Global Leadership Expert and Geopolitical Strategist Dr. Sam Potolicchio, for an essential conversation about navigating our fast-shifting business environment. Drawing from frontline insights in global policy and cutting-edge media trends, this session will provide attendees with critical tools for understanding emerging challenges and opportunities that will empower executive leaders to guide their organizations through complexity with strategic vision and unwavering confidence.

“In today’s hyperconnected world, the events that shape headlines on Monday are reshaping business strategies by Friday,” said Johnston. “The organizations that rise to the top are those with leaders who excel at reading the signals, understanding the deeper currents and positioning their organizations ahead of the curve.”

Predictions for the Future of Business and Exhibitions

Dr. Sam Potolicchio, President of the Preparing Global Leaders Forum, will close Predict by examining the convergence of global political, social and environmental forces reshaping the business landscape, revealing what they mean specifically for the exhibition industry. His strategic analysis goes beyond surface-level trends to uncover the deeper shifts that will determine which organizations will thrive in the next five years. He will also provide a candid assessment of his previous year’s predictions, analyzing both the forecasts that materialized and those that missed the mark, offering valuable insights into the unpredictable nature of today’s strategic planning.

“The companies that thrive in the next five years won’t be those with the biggest booths, but those whose leaders understand the fundamental shifts in how commerce actually works,” said Potolicchio. “I will reveal the business model changes that are already reshaping our industry, often in ways that catch organizers completely off guard.”

The Strategic Imperative

Last year’s Predict conference covered critical topics including economic impacts, geopolitical risks, AI applications and election implications. The 2025 agenda builds on these proven foundations while introducing new perspectives essential for navigating tomorrow’s challenges.

Attendees consistently report that Predict provides them with insights they can’t find anywhere else in the industry, helping them make strategic decisions that position their organizations ahead of the curve rather than reacting to changes after they happen.

In an industry where success increasingly depends on anticipating change rather than reacting to it, the CEIR Predict Conference offers something invaluable: the ability to see around corners. Top industry executives understand that competitive advantage belongs to those who not only understand what happened, but are fully prepared for what’s coming next.

Ready to gain your competitive advantage? Click here to learn more and register for the 2025 CEIR Predict Conference.

The post CEIR Predict Gives Today’s Leaders Tomorrow’s Competitive Edge appeared first on IAEE.

Drawing from her extensive experience at tech giants Amazon and Microsoft, Russell offered valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities in AI development, while emphasizing the critical importance of building inclusive and responsible AI systems.

The Human Side of AI Development

Russell began her session with a powerful demonstration of AI capabilities through a deep fake introduction that set the stage for a discussion about AI’s rapid advancement. She shared her personal motivation for entering the AI field, driven by her son’s Down syndrome, and her desire to make technology more accessible. This human-centered approach has influenced her work, from developing Alexa at Amazon to training large language models at Microsoft.

Creating Inclusive AI Models

In discussing the development of AI systems, Russell emphasized the crucial role of intentional data collection and early decision-making in shaping AI models. She stressed that addressing biases and ensuring inclusivity must begin at the earliest stages of development. Through various anecdotes from her career, she illustrated how human intervention and continuous improvement are essential for creating AI systems that truly serve all users.

Ethical Considerations and Security Challenges

Russell shared compelling examples of AI vulnerabilities, including instances where systems were manipulated through creative approaches. She recounted how a journalist used a personal story to extract sensitive information from an AI model, highlighting the importance of robust security measures. The concept of “red teaming” – ethical hacking to test AI systems – was presented as a crucial practice for identifying and addressing potential vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. The solution, she emphasized, lies in establishing clear guardrails and maintaining clarity of thought in AI system development.

Implementing AI with Core Values

When it comes to implementing AI within organizations, Russell strongly emphasized the fundamental role of core company values. She pointed to examples where even tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon faced failures in AI projects when they strayed from their core values. The key to successful implementation, she suggested, lies in understanding and addressing risks specific to each organization rather than applying a one-size-fits-all solution.

To demonstrate practical implementation, Russell shared how organizations can build effective AI systems using simple tools like whiteboards and enterprise versions of ChatGPT, proving that successful AI implementation doesn’t always require complex technical resources – instead, it requires clear thinking and strong alignment with organizational principles.

Environmental Impact and Future Challenges

Russell addressed growing concerns about AI’s environmental impact, particularly regarding energy consumption by large models. She discussed how AI can be part of the solution by optimizing energy usage and supporting sustainable practices. Looking to the future, she touched on the emergence of quantum AI and its potential implications for current encryption methods, emphasizing the need for continued investment in cybersecurity measures.

The Path Forward

In her closing remarks, Russell called for a balanced approach to AI development that prioritizes both technological advancement and human needs. She stressed the importance of asking difficult questions and maintaining human oversight in AI systems. Organizations must remain adaptable and informed about AI developments while ensuring their implementation strategies align with core values and prioritize responsible practices. She emphasized organizations guide their AI journey through responsible development, security considerations and strategically applying the human element.

Save the date for next year’s Predict Conference on 11-12 September 2025 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. Stay tuned for more details here.

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Carmichael began with a refreshing admission: as a futurist, he doesn’t actually predict the future. Instead, his work focuses on understanding possible futures and preparing for them. He shared a personal anecdote about anxiety, relating how his teenagers often ask him how he manages to speak publicly without nervousness. His answer? Preparation. While he can’t control everything (like his wife setting the car clock ahead), he can plan for contingencies. This philosophy forms the foundation of his approach to future planning.

Carmichael emphasized the importance of understanding “known unknowns,” a concept borrowed from a famous speech by Donald Rumsfeld. He outlined how his company, Ipsos, approaches future thinking through its theory of change framework. This includes analyzing macro forces (like climate change and demographic shifts), monitoring signals (such as new patents or policies), and tracking shifts in societal values. He illustrated this with a fascinating historical example: Charles Joseph Menard’s visualization of Napoleon’s march to Moscow, which demonstrated how poor foresight regarding weather led to catastrophic results.

Carmichael also delved into several key areas of change affecting events and businesses.

Population Dynamics

Our aging workforce presents unique challenges for event planning, potentially requiring venues to accommodate both 28-year-olds and 82-year-olds simultaneously. The rise of the “1099 economy” (contract work) is also changing how professional development and conference attendance are funded.

Technology

While AI and automation present opportunities, they also create anxiety. Carmichael noted that people simultaneously believe technology will solve our problems while destroying our lives – a fascinating contradiction in human nature. Major tech companies are already preparing for massive workforce disruption, planning to retrain 100 million workers.

Climate Change

Rising temperatures and increasing weather disruptions may force events to reconsider traditional venues and timing. Phoenix in July might become untenable, while increased flight turbulence could drive a trend toward more regional events.

Trust and Disinformation

In an era of synthetic media and declining trust, in-person events might gain new importance as venues where people can verify authenticity with their own eyes.

Carmichael also touched on pandemic preparedness, noting that another pandemic isn’t a question of “if,” but “when.” The political polarization around health measures suggests future outbreaks could be even more disruptive to events and gatherings.

He emphasized the importance of brand risk in our polarized world, where consumers increasingly align purchases with their values. This affects everything from speaker selection to sponsor relationships and venue choices.

Carmichael concluded with practical advice for activating research and planning for the future: curate information carefully, tell compelling stories, run workshops and give teams time to think creatively. Different stakeholders need different approaches – what works for an innovation team won’t necessarily resonate with the C-suite.

The key takeaway? While we can’t predict the future, we can imagine possible tomorrows and prepare for them. This forward-thinking approach leads to better research, better questions, and ultimately, better preparation for whatever the future might bring.

Save the date for next year’s Predict Conference on 11-12 September 2025 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. Stay tuned for more details here.

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Chamorro emphasized that we are entering an era marked by increased complexity and nuanced relationships between nations. Let’s take a comprehensive look at the key trends and predictions he noted are currently shaping our world.

The End of the Unipolar World

One of the most significant shifts highlighted is the transition from a unipolar world dominated by the United States (1990-2015) to what Chamorro describes as a “multi-layered” world. This isn’t simply about multiple powers competing for influence; it’s about the complex web of relationships and interests that sometimes seem contradictory.

Turkey exemplifies this new multi-layered complexity in global relations. As NATO’s second-largest military force, Turkey maintains significant military cooperation with Western allies, demonstrated through its supply of drones to Ukraine. Yet simultaneously, the country has become a crucial haven for Russian businesses, creating an interesting dichotomy in its international relationships. Adding another layer of complexity, Turkey serves as the banking center for Hamas while maintaining an authoritarian democracy that attempts to balance secular and religious interests. This intricate web of seemingly contradictory relationships perfectly illustrates the nuanced nature of modern global politics.

Rising Economic Powers

India’s Ascent

India’s economic transformation has been remarkable over the past decade, climbing from the tenth to the fifth largest economy globally. Economic projections suggest an even more impressive future, with India on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. The country has reached a crucial economic milestone with its $4,500 per capita GDP, a threshold that historically marks a significant transformation in consumer behavior. At this income level, citizens typically begin purchasing durable goods such as motorcycles, refrigerators, and homes, representing a fundamental shift in consumption patterns.

However, India’s economic landscape comes with significant challenges and complexities. Despite its technological advances, half of India’s population remains dependent on agriculture, making the economy vulnerable to weather patterns and monsoon seasons. The formal economy excludes approximately half the population due to illiteracy, creating a significant barrier to full economic participation. Even as global companies like Apple shift some production to India from China, these manufacturing transitions represent only a small fraction of global production totals, indicating that the path to manufacturing dominance remains long and challenging.

The Rise of “Connector Markets”

A new category of economically significant nations has emerged in response to global supply chain shifts away from China. These “connector markets” – including Mexico, Poland, Morocco, Vietnam, and Indonesia – are becoming increasingly crucial in global trade and manufacturing. Each of these countries brings unique advantages to the global supply chain, though their success stories vary. Mexico, for instance, has benefited significantly from its proximity to the United States, succeeding largely due to geographical advantages rather than supportive policy decisions. These markets represent a fundamental restructuring of global supply chains and offer new opportunities for international business and investment.

Global Challenges and Risks

Climate Change Impact

Chamorro outlined a comprehensive view of climate-related challenges across different timeframes. In the short term, we’re witnessing an increase in extreme weather events occurring in unexpected locations, disrupting traditional weather patterns and business operations. Medium-term challenges center around evolving policy requirements and regulatory compliance, as governments worldwide implement new environmental regulations. The long-term implications are perhaps the most profound, raising fundamental questions about where people can live and work. Insurance companies are already limiting coverage in vulnerable areas, while extreme temperatures are challenging workplace viability in certain regions. These developments are forcing businesses and communities to reconsider their long-term planning and risk management strategies.

Pandemic Risks

The ongoing threat of pandemics remains a significant concern in our interconnected world. Environmental encroachment has increased the frequency of cross-species disease transmission, creating new pathways for virus mutations and spread. While COVID-19’s global mortality rate averaged around 1%, Chamorro highlighted the more alarming potential of diseases like avian flu, which has shown mortality rates as high as 50% in direct transmission cases. The continued intersection of human expansion and wildlife habitats creates new risk vectors that could lead to more severe disease outbreaks in the future.

Digital Security

The emergence of artificial intelligence has fundamentally transformed the digital security landscape. Bad actors can now process and exploit large datasets more effectively than ever before, creating new vulnerabilities in previously secure systems. Chamorro emphasized that data integrity, rather than mere access, has become a critical concern. The potential for subtle manipulation of financial data presents systemic risks that could undermine confidence in financial institutions and markets. This shift in the nature of digital threats requires a new approach to cybersecurity and risk management.

Global Policy Shifts

Industrial policy has evolved into a global phenomenon, with nations worldwide implementing strategic economic initiatives. The United States’ CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) exemplify this trend, with similar initiatives emerging in other countries. However, these benefits can be withdrawn or modified based on shifting geopolitical relationships, creating a new layer of complexity in international business relations.

Looking Forward

Chamorro identified several critical areas requiring ongoing attention and monitoring. Terrorism, particularly in the form of “lone wolf” attacks, shows signs of resurgence. The European Union faces potential dysfunction in its decision-making processes, which could affect global trade and economic stability. Pandemic risks, especially from variants like avian flu, continue to threaten global health and economic systems. Perhaps most challenging is the need to manage multiple simultaneous crises, requiring new approaches to risk management and strategic planning.

The key takeaway is that while the world isn’t necessarily more dangerous than before, it has become significantly more complex and nuanced. Success in this environment requires a sophisticated understanding of the interconnected nature of global challenges, coupled with continuous monitoring of key indicators. Organizations must maintain regulatory compliance across multiple jurisdictions while developing the capacity to recognize early warning signs of emerging risks. While these challenges might appear overwhelming, they also present opportunities for organizations that can effectively navigate this new landscape. The key lies not in predicting every possible outcome but in building the capacity to understand and respond to an increasingly complex global environment.

Save the date for next year’s Predict Conference on 11-12 September 2025 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. Stay tuned for more details here.

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Referencing data from CEIR’s 2024 Index Report, Sacks noted that the exhibition industry is charting a remarkable recovery path, displaying extraordinary resilience in the post-pandemic landscape. According to detailed economic analysis, the industry has currently recovered to 91% of its 2019 pre-pandemic levels, with a trajectory that suggests not just recovery, but potential growth and transformation in the coming years.

Economic Landscape and Recovery Dynamics

The United States economy presents a complex yet promising picture. Real GDP is projected to grow 2.6% in 2024, with a slight deceleration to 1.9% in 2025 – a scenario economists are describing as a potential “soft landing.” This economic moderation is accompanied by significant wage growth, with private sector wages increasing 23% since February 2020, outpacing consumer price increases of 18%.

The Federal Reserve is expected to play a crucial role in economic stabilization, with plans to lower interest rates. This monetary strategy comes after an unprecedented period of rapid interest rate increases – the fastest in historical context. Remarkably, contrary to most economists’ predictions, these aggressive rate hikes have not induced a recession.

Industry-Specific Recovery Trends

The exhibition industry’s recovery is nuanced and sector dependent. By 2024, three key sectors – Transportation, Finance/Legal/Real Estate and Education – are projected to fully recover. By 2026, analysts expect 11 out of 14 tracked sectors to completely restore their pre-pandemic performance, with Consumer Goods, Raw Materials and Sporting Goods likely to lag behind.

Transformation of Business Travel and Networking

The pandemic has fundamentally altered workplace dynamics, with remote work now comprising approximately 25% of workdays – a dramatic increase from just 5% pre-pandemic. This structural shift has not diminished the need for in-person interactions. Remarkably, 58% of remote workers report needing to meet colleagues in person at least quarterly, often through conferences, conventions, and exhibitions.

International travel recovery presents a mixed landscape. Markets like Canada have reached 95% of 2019 travel levels, while Asian markets remain approximately 20% below pre-pandemic performance. Significant challenges persist, including visa processing bottlenecks and limited flight availability, particularly in regions like China.

The international travel spending pattern has also reversed dramatically. In 2019, international travelers to the U.S. spent $22 billion more than U.S. residents spent abroad. Currently, the U.S. is experiencing a travel trade deficit of about $20 billion – a substantial shift that impacts hotel demand and exhibition participation.

Corporate and Meeting Planner Sentiment

Corporate profits remain a strong indicator of future exhibition participation. With profit margins expected to hover around 10%, companies continue to view trade show participation as strategic investments for future growth. Meeting planner sentiment has improved significantly, with only 11% expressing pessimism about future meetings – the lowest percentage in recent years.

Projected Growth and Recovery Trajectory

The exhibition industry is projected to grow 8.5% year-over-year in 2024, with more modest growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. Net square feet sold is expected to recover from 93% to 98% in 2024, with exhibitors reaching nearly 98% recovery and attendees at 95% of pre-pandemic levels.

Broader Economic Considerations

The upcoming election and potential policy changes introduce additional complexity. Both major political platforms present economic challenges, including potential tariffs and tax increases. However, economists predict limited immediate impact, with more significant economic implications potentially emerging in 2026 and 2027.

What’s Next?

The exhibition industry stands at a fascinating inflection point. While the recovery path is not linear and challenges remain, the underlying economic fundamentals, corporate strategies, and human need for face-to-face interactions suggest a robust and adaptive future. The industry is not just recovering but potentially reimagining itself for a new economic and technological landscape.

Take a deep dive into business insights and forecasts for B2B exhibitions in North America by purchasing your copy of the CEIR Index Report today! The full report examines each of the 14 industry sectors tracked by the CEIR Index or purchase individual sector reports. Find out more here.

Save the date for next year’s Predict Conference on 11-12 September 2025 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. Stay tuned for more details here.

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As a professor at Georgetown University, Potolicchio has a deep understanding of the nuances of American politics, and his insights challenged conventional wisdom about how elections are won and lost.

The Power of Comparison and Charisma

One of the central themes of Potolicchio’s presentation was the outsized importance of charisma and comparative analysis in swaying voter perceptions. He argued that individuals are often judged not in absolute terms, but in relation to their competitors. Using examples from his own teaching experience, Potolicchio demonstrated how apparent competence can be heavily influenced by the quality of one’s peers.

This dynamic was especially relevant in the 2016 Republican primaries, where Donald Trump’s outsider status and unconventional persona allowed him to stand out in a way that traditional politicians could not. Potolicchio suggested that a similar effect could benefit Kamala Harris, as her relative youth and energy could prove advantageous in contrast to the perceived age and fatigue of her opponent.

The Outsized Influence of Low-Information Voters

Potolicchio also highlighted the crucial role of low-information or undecided voters in determining the outcome of the election. Citing a humorous “Saturday Night Live” sketch, he illustrated the seemingly arbitrary decision-making process of these less-engaged voters. Potolicchio argued that mobilizing this segment of the electorate could be a key strategic priority for both campaigns, as their votes could tip the balance in crucial swing states.

The Ohio State vs. Penn State Football Game as a Bellwether

Perhaps one of the most surprising insights from Potolicchio’s presentation was his assertion that the outcome of the Ohio State vs. Penn State football game could have a significant impact on the presidential election. Drawing on academic research, he suggested that a Penn State victory could provide a boost to the Democratic candidate, as the game takes place in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

Potolicchio’s rationale was based on studies showing a correlation between the success of a hometown team and the incumbent party’s performance. He argued that this phenomenon could be especially relevant in a closely contested race, where even a small shift in voter enthusiasm could make the difference. (Note: Ohio State beat Penn State 20-13.)

Foreign Interference and the Threat to Election Integrity

Potolicchio also expressed grave concerns about the potential for foreign interference, particularly from Russia, in undermining the integrity of the electoral process. He cited examples of Russian-backed social media campaigns and the need for vigilance against such efforts, warning that these external influences could have a profound impact on the outcome of the election.

The Inherent Unpredictability of the 2024 Race

Ultimately, Potolicchio’s presentation underscored the inherent unpredictability of the 2024 presidential election. He cautioned against overconfidence in predictions, emphasizing the need for intellectual humility and a deep understanding of the multifaceted factors that can shape voter behavior.

With a range of potential external influences at play, from the outcome of a football game to the machinations of foreign adversaries, the 2024 race promised to be as captivating and unpredictable as it ultimately was. As the political landscape continues to evolve, Potolicchio’s insights offer a valuable perspective on the complex dynamics within the Oval Office.

Save the date for next year’s Predict Conference on 11-12 September 2025 at the MGM National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. Stay tuned for more details here.

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Here, we look at the sessions that will be presented at Predict 2024 and the insights attendees will gain to help them make better decisions and keep their strategies­ competitive in a rapidly changing world.

Navigating the Global Landscape: Insights on Economy, Geopolitics, and Exhibitions

The global economy and political landscape are deeply intertwined, shaping business climates, trade patterns, and international partnerships. Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics Company, will offer key insights on these topics. He will explain the CEIR Index, its relevance to different market sectors, and how our industry can use CEIR data to make smarter choices. The session will also cover the current economic situation, its effects on exhibitions, and predictions for future impacts. Attendees will learn how to tackle challenges, spot market opportunities, and make strategic moves in our fast-changing world.

Geopolitical Landscape and Its Impact

The U.S. faces many complex risks in today’s changing world, which can affect businesses, including those in exhibitions and events. These risks range from political tensions to economic uncertainties and tech disruptions. Dane Chamorro, Partner at Control Risks and Head of Global Risk Analysis and Business Intelligence for the Americas, will give an overview of the current global situation and focus on key political risks that businesses need to watch out for.

Chamorro will explore how these risks might affect the exhibition and events industry, including potential problems with supply chains, changes in regulations, and unpredictable markets. He will also share practical advice and strategies to help organizations prepare for and adapt to these challenging times. By understanding the political landscape and managing risks proactively, businesses can not only protect themselves but also find new ways to grow and become more resilient in our changing world.

The Future of Risk

Uncertainty is a given in our risky world. Throughout Predict, attendees will hear forecasts about various risk areas. Matt Carmichael, Senior Vice President at Ipsos’ Global Trends & Foresight and Editor of What the Future, will delve into how to think about these topics as a whole. He will guide attendees on preparing for likely scenarios in the exhibitions industry by introducing big-picture forces and trends shaping the future, as well as explain how these trends can affect brand image and reputation risks. This session will also provide an overview of tools and methods futurists use to help organizations create powerful planning scenarios, assess risks, prepare for uncertain futures and understand the potential backlash to these preparations.

The Future of AI in Exhibitions and Events

Leading AI Innovator and Practitioner Noelle Russell, Founder and Chief AI Officer of the AI Leadership Institute, will explore how AI is changing the exhibitions and events industry. She will focus on both generative and applied AI technologies, and share real-world examples that include more than a dozen AI models that can improve business operations, create groundbreaking solutions and drive growth. While highlighting AI opportunities, Russell will also address potential risks, challenges, and ethical concerns. Attendees will learn how AI can support human creativity rather than replace it – ideal for organizations looking to boost innovation, make their applications more accessible and understand AI’s practical uses in their field.

Decoding the AI Revolution: Artificial Intelligence Today and Tomorrow

Sean Watson, Futurist and Senior Vice President of Special Projects at Trend Hunter, will offer key insights on the ongoing AI revolution and its future potential. His keynote will cover real-world AI applications, industry progress and AI’s impact across various sectors. Watson will highlight current AI trends, challenges, and opportunities for businesses and society as well as show how AI is reshaping our present and future. In today’s tech-driven world, all businesses need to leverage technology. This session will teach attendees how to stay relevant and succeed in the digital age by embracing AI’s powerful influence.

Navigating the Election Impact: A Trade Show Organizers’ Guide to Preparing for 2024’s Uncertainties

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is expected to be a nail-biter, with the outcome uncertain until the very end. Despite this, future event planning is already in motion. The ability to predict and imagine different futures based on possible election results is key to making smart planning choices. Dr. Clifford Young, President of U.S. Public Affairs at IPSOS, will provide a thorough overview of the global political scene, focusing on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Young will share the latest predictions on each candidate’s chances of winning, as well as outline various scenarios showing how the business landscape might change depending on who wins and what these changes could mean for the trade show industry. He will also discuss key factors that organizers should consider in their event planning strategies to ensure future success.

A Look Back and The Road Ahead: Unveiling Insights for Tomorrow’s World

Predict 2024’s closing keynote features Dr. Sam Potolicchio, President of Preparing Global Leaders Forum and Founding Executive Director of the Center for Global Leadership at American Councils. Potolicchio will explore a broad range of global issues including political, social and environmental developments. His presentation will challenge attendees to think critically about the future, provide insights into potential trends shaping our world and offer a deeper understanding of upcoming developments. He will also review his predictions from last year, discussing which ones came true and which did not.

Learn more about Predict 2024 and request an invitation to attend here!

Get even more bang for your buck by attending the AI Innovation Masterclass with Trend Hunter’s Jeremy Gutsche the day prior.

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Originally published on Forbes.com

It’s difficult to write about artificial intelligence (AI) in the software sector without falling into some of the same well-worn conversation points we’ve all been seeing. Yes, these radical innovations are transforming everything from payroll to hiring, but it’s important to examine another angle as we move forward: responsibility and governance.

“Embracing AI governance platforms is not just a matter of compliance; it is a strategic imperative for organizations looking to thrive in the age of AI,” explained Raghunandhan Kuppuswamy, IDC research manager of AI software.

The message he’s conveying, and it’s one I agree with, is that we must not simply do the bare minimum when it comes to AI regulation and compliance. As purveyors and proponents of AI-based technology, corporate leadership teams are responsible for establishing the codes and rulebooks that ensure AI’s impact is beneficial.

I’ve experienced firsthand the questions that arise when implementing AI-enabled tools in Opkey’s field, ERP test automation. We’re seeing huge gains in productivity and development efficiency. But it’s not only about the wins for the product: We must take responsibility not only for what these tools are doing now but also for their potential impact down the line.

In highly complex systems, this takes more than a cursory glance. It’s an ongoing conversation, a way of working and a lens of practical responsibility that leaders must adopt. It’s something that should bring us together across industries, and the conversation needs to include stakeholders from many different standpoints, each bringing a valuable point of view.

So, what are the strategic points of analysis when it comes to AI governance? This is what’s on my mind.

Robust Data Privacy and Security Measures

Protecting user data and maintaining coherent security protocols are foundational to ensuring that AI is a benefit to our systems, not a problem. To do this, I recommend implementing stringent data privacy measures and advanced security mechanisms to protect sensitive information. Make sure to hold your AI systems to the highest standards of data integrity and confidentiality, thereby creating user confidence and trust.

Regulatory Compliance and Proactive Governance

Proactive engagement with regulatory bodies and adherence to evolving AI governance frameworks are crucial. You can achieve this by actively collaborating with industry regulators to ensure your AI systems comply with legal standards, promoting a culture of accountability and safeguarding against misuse. Staying ahead of regulatory changes can allow you to set benchmarks for responsible AI development.

Continuous Monitoring and Transparency

You can’t create these AI-powered tools and let them run amok without monitoring them. Continuous control and transparency in AI operations are essential for maintaining ethical standards and operational excellence. Consider investing in state-of-the-art monitoring tools and processes to proactively track AI performance and address issues. By fostering transparency, you can help stakeholders understand and evaluate your AI’s decision-making processes, enhancing accountability and trust.

There are more angles to this subject – these three merely offer a taste of what we, as leadership teams and developers, should be discussing every day. Let this article therefore be the start of the conversation, not the end.

Whether you’re embarking on an AI program or looking to enhance existing initiatives, CEIR’s AI Innovation Masterclass in September will provide the strategic framework and practical tools needed to thrive in the AI era.

Amplify your CEIR Predict takeaways with the AI Innovation Masterclass the day prior! Learn more and register to attend here.

About the Author

Pankaj Goel is Opkey’s Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Chairman of the Board. He founded Opkey in 2016. Previously he served as Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Crestech Software Systems from 2005 to 2015.

The views and opinions expressed by blog authors are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Center for Exhibition Industry Research. Any content provided by our bloggers or authors are of their opinion. All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. CEIR makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. CEIR will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information.

The post AI Governance: The Complex Conversation We Should Be Having appeared first on IAEE.

In the rapidly evolving digital age, mastering Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a cornerstone for businesses aiming to sustain growth and stay ahead of the curve. Yet, for many leaders and entrepreneurs, the mere mention of AI can evoke visions of complex algorithms and inscrutable coding languages, leading to technical overwhelm. However, integrating AI into your business strategy doesn’t have to be a daunting endeavor.

Here are five practical ways to leverage AI for your business growth, tailored for those who wish to navigate the AI landscape without getting bogged down in the technical minutiae.

#1 Start with the ‘Why’: Define Your Business Goals

Begin by clarifying what you wish to achieve with AI. Whether it’s enhancing customer experience, streamlining operations, or unlocking new insights from data, having a clear objective will guide your AI journey. Remember, AI is not just a tool but a means to an end. Identifying your goals will not only provide direction but also help in selecting the right AI solutions that align with your business needs.

#2 Embrace AI as a Service (AIaaS)

One of the most accessible ways to integrate AI into your business is through AI as a Service (AIaaS). This approach allows you to leverage AI technologies through cloud-based services without the need for extensive technical expertise. From natural language processing and speech recognition to predictive analytics, AIaaS platforms offer a variety of services that can be customized to your business needs. This model enables you to experiment with AI capabilities and scale up as your confidence and understanding grow.

#3 Focus on Data Quality Over Quantity

AI’s effectiveness is deeply rooted in the quality of data it’s fed. Before diving deep into AI implementation, invest time and resources in ensuring your data is clean, organized, and relevant. This doesn’t necessarily require technical expertise but attention to detail and a strategic approach to data management. Clean, high-quality data is the fuel that powers AI, enabling it to generate accurate insights and make informed decisions.

#4 Leverage User-Friendly AI Tools and Platforms

The market is abundant with AI tools and platforms designed with non-technical users in mind. These platforms often come with intuitive interfaces, drag-and-drop features, and pre-built templates, making it easier for business leaders to experiment with AI without deep technical knowledge. Tools like automated marketing platforms, customer relationship management (CRM) systems with AI capabilities, and visual data analysis software can be powerful allies in your AI journey.

#5 Collaborate with AI Experts and Invest in Continuous Learning

Building a collaborative relationship with AI experts can significantly demystify the technical aspects of AI for you and your team. Whether through hiring in-house experts, consulting with AI firms, or partnering with AI startups, gaining insights from those who live and breathe AI can accelerate your learning curve and implementation process. Additionally, investing in continuous learning through workshops, webinars, and courses on AI for business leaders can empower you and your team to make informed decisions and stay abreast of the latest AI developments.

Conclusion

Mastering AI for business growth is less about becoming a technical expert and more about understanding how AI can serve your business goals. By starting with clear objectives, leveraging AIaaS, focusing on data quality, utilizing user-friendly tools, and collaborating with experts, you can harness the power of AI to drive business growth without the technical overwhelm. In doing so, you embody the virtues of mindful leadership in technology, prioritizing clarity, empathy, and a heart of service in the age of AI.

​Remember, the journey to integrating AI into your business is a marathon, not a sprint. Embrace it with enthusiasm, resilience, and an open mind, and watch as it transforms your business in ways you never imagined possible.

Noelle will be addressing the Future of AI in Exhibitions and Events at this year’s Predict Conference in September! Learn more and register to attend here.

About the Author

Noelle Russell, Founder of the AI Leadership Institute, is a multi-award-winning technologist with an entrepreneurial spirit who specializes in helping companies with data, cloud, conversational AI, Generative AI, and LLMs. She has led teams at NPR, Microsoft, IBM, AWS and Amazon Alexa, and is a consistent champion for Data and AI literacy. In the last year, she was awarded the Microsoft Most Valuable Professional (MVP) award for Artificial Intelligence (for the 3rd year) as well as VentureBeat’s Women in AI Responsibility and Ethics award.

The views and opinions expressed by blog authors are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Center for Exhibition Industry Research. Any content provided by our bloggers or authors are of their opinion. All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. CEIR makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. CEIR will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information.

The post 5 Ways to Master AI for Business Growth Without Technical Overwhelm appeared first on IAEE.

In parts one and two of this series, Predict keynote speaker Dr. Peter Fader defined customer centricity and what it means for B2B exhibitions, as well as explained how B2B exhibition organizers can apply the customer centricity model to enhance the return on investment of their events. Here, Peter discusses how the customer centricity model can benefit B2B exhibitions and creating a company culture that supports it.

One phrase you repeat is “data, analytics and technology” as it relates to creating a customer centric strategy. How can the exhibition industry make the most of these elements to take their attendee acquisition efforts further? What is the potential for the customer centric model in this industry?

Peter: First of all, what CEIR has been doing is tremendous. I look at the data you are collecting and the seriousness that you’re bringing to it by doing formal studies. Also, talking to someone like me, outside of your industry; that’s a real credit to how serious you are about driving acquisition.

Right now, given the circumstances, a lot of the focus is largely on quantity. Which makes sense, the approach of getting more traffic going through exhibitions. However, let’s try to re-establish a new normal. I’m hoping what will happen is that in driving quantity, we will also be mindful of quality. In doing so, we are going to have to start investing in – here we go – data, analytics and technology to get people to self-identify and to rely on the technologies available.

It is kind of a new normal, so people will need to get past some of the old hesitations that they might have. As we start getting more people coming through exhibitions and have the ability to collect more data, show organizers will have a better understanding of who their attendees are. At some point, when we do establish the new normal, we will hopefully see foot traffic that rivals what it was five years ago. But even if it’s not, and regardless of what the new normal looks like, we need to start shifting our focus from quantity to quality.

And we need to start really understanding how attendees differ from each other: their propensity to come back, their propensity to engage and their propensity to spend. We then need to find smart ways to share that information with the exhibitors so that you know that they can understand the return-on-investment (ROI) that they’re getting.

Shows are planned well in advance, so it has to be sustainable. Let’s invest in the technologies and the insights as we reach a new equilibrium. We are only going to be smarter than we ever were before because many industries are completely saturated. This customer centricity approach opens doors to innovation and many industries are applying it. For example, I recently had lunch with a customer in the telco [telecommunications] sector. There are no new customers to be acquired, right? It’s just a matter of watching customers shuffle around from one carrier to another and then trying to sell them bigger bundles of more stuff.

Again, the exhibition industry is in an unusual position where you really can look at the balance between Who should we hold onto? and What can we do to increase revenue from them? But in using acquisition as a strategic weapon as well, you have to really look into not just how many attendees you’re bringing in, but the quality of them. And then let that drive a lot of the retention and development tactics down the road.

It’s not easy and it’s not cheap, but it is an opportunity to potentially achieve a type of growth that is not only greater than what you were seeing pre-pandemic, but smarter and more accountable. The goal is to be able to put dollars and cents up against it more effectively than ever before.

I think the good news is that people believe that they have to gather insane amounts of data. However, as mentioned in part one of this series, it really comes down to two to three data points. So, it’s not as daunting a task. Well, I suppose it can be for some, but the more daunting part of it is establishing a new kind of culture.

Which brings us to our final question. You are currently working on a new book that explores creating the right corporate culture for customer centricity to truly succeed. What does that entail and how does it play into the overall strategic plan?

Peter: A culture that’s inherently data-driven brings the people doing the data analytics front and center, and lets everyone know that they’re not here just to be party poopers. In fact, they’re actually here to help if they can. If they can demonstrate the financial value that different kinds of tactics are bringing, it’s going to give the rest of the team more resources, credibility and leeway to try other creative things.

Establishing a culture that really embraces all the data, analytics and technology can be really hard. It’s a different kind of conversation and a different kind of organizational structure. I have seen that with many companies that embrace the analytics, there are those who love what I’m proposing! They are living and breathing RFM (recency, frequency and monetary value) but it’s very difficult for them to get everyone else in the organization to understand and appreciate it.

This challenge can be harder than dealing with the data and/or building the models. And that is why I’m writing book number four, which will detail creating a customer centric corporate culture. Because it’s a very unconventional kind of culture and, currently for most organizations, we build the culture around the products and services that we deliver.

Exhibitions are no different, but now we want to build a culture around the customers we are serving – attendees, exhibitors and show partners. That requires very different kinds of organizational charts, conversations, incentives and mindsets. It is still early for this industry but the fact that you are bringing in someone like me and willing to learn from other industries is great.

In fact, the beauty of the exhibition industry is that it serves those industries through its events, so you are actually a much better fit for materializing results. You are immersed with these industries and not on an island like so many others are. Embrace that opportunity and learn from these folks as you engage with them.

Save the date for Predict, CEIR’s Annual Exhibition Industry Outlook Conference on 12-13 September 2024 and explore CEIR’s complete library of research here.

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In part one of this series, Predict keynote speaker Dr. Peter Fader explains how the customer centricity model that has worked successfully in the consumer business realm can help business-to-business (B2B) exhibition marketers grow their events. Here, Peter continues the conversation with insights into ways of applying this model to increase the return on investment (ROI) and attendee acquisition efforts for B2B events.

In discussing growth opportunity, you note that the ROI is higher when focusing on the customers that are promoters versus the detractors, yet you don’t want to ignore the latter segment. What factors should marketing strategists stress with their higher-level customers? Alternately, what should they focus on with their less engaged customers?

Peter: We want to become customer centric and say, What is it that makes high value attendees or exhibitors different than the “so-so” ones? And how can we deliver to them? Whether it’s something that you are comfortable doing or not. One of my favorite examples is, what if you know that attendees would like to drop their dry cleaning off on the way to the conference and by the time they leave the show it’s cleaned, pressed and ready for them to pick it up? Then do it, figure it out! If that is something that makes a difference with those high value customers, then figure it out.

That may be a silly example but illustrates the importance of doing whatever it takes for your high value customers. And I’m saying customers, whether they are attendees or exhibitors. The investment in going out of your way for them is nothing compared to the value that they bring you on an ongoing basis. That is being customer centric, figuring out what makes them different and speaking specifically to their needs.

From a messaging standpoint, figure out what is appealing to them. As you are trying to attract attendees and/or exhibitors, have a sense of what you need to emphasize instead of trying to be all things to all people. There are going to be points that resonate more than others, and they will be broadly popular. Distinguish what points are narrowly popular with those higher value customers.

With the “so-so” group, we want to be very careful. We’re never trying to chase people away or say, “you are not welcome here.” Of course not, that’s ridiculous. Keep in mind there is a chance that the higher value customers are few and far between, that we might be wrong, that tastes change, or that there are even better ones out there. This is the paradox of customer centricity.

The more that we zoom in on what we think of the really high value customers, the more that we need the “so-so” ones to keep the lights on, hedge our bets and make sure we’re prepared for the future should things change with the high value group. We don’t want to over-invest but we can find scalable things that keep them coming back without having the illusion, or delusion, that we can turn those ugly ducklings into beautiful swans.

You will have your “one and done” attendees and exhibitors which make it tempting to think, Why should we reach out to them? But there is some amount of customer lifetime value (CLV) in them and there may be more future value in them than you’ve thought.  So, let’s not over-invest but keep them on our radar and us on their radar.

You may actually find that even for the lowest tier of potential customers – when you look at them through a CLV lens – you may have been under-investing in them all along. It might be a matter of not only raising the ceiling for those really awesome customers, but that raising the floor a little bit for your “so-so” group may be a worthy investment.

You emphasize the importance and value of measuring the tactics you are applying to the impact on customer behavior. In your research, what has been the most dramatic difference you have seen for companies that successfully connect the dots?

Peter: One of the great things about CLV or customer valuation is that we’re using dollars and cents to measure effectiveness and accepting no substitute – you have to look at everything through ROI. It’s about financial accountability and alignment.

Marketers sometimes hide behind a smoke screen, basically saying, “It’s all about the brand. It’s all about the experience. It’s all about the feeling.” I don’t deny the power of those things but if they don’t end up turning into money, then it just brings financial rigor to tactics and decisions that are not quantified. Marketers will stress that ROI is not always instantaneous, which is fine, that’s why it’s called lifetime value. But as long as ROI will show up over some horizon that we can project, I can get behind long-term impact.

Alignment follows closely in that I find it very troublesome when you have tiny little fiefdoms within the enterprise that are doing their own thing. The acquisitions people are marching to their own beat to bring in new customers and the retention people are doing their thing to save customers from jumping ship. Then you have customer development worrying about what the right thing is to cross-sell and upsell, etc. All too often, the decisions that groups make go against the grain of the others which leads to incredible inefficiency and infighting.

So, let’s agree on using the same metrics to make sure that we can align these decisions and find more synergies across them to the extent that budgets are tight, and we have to make some tough decisions. We have to establish some priorities and we can do it in an apples-to-apples way that will get much more respect from the folks in finance and elsewhere in the organization. What’s ironic is that it might actually be less efficient in the process but if it’s more transparent and aligned, that’s okay.

What kind of difference can it make? We have a very interesting case study on that.

We did a project with a pharmaceutical company that sells a variety of medical products. They faced an interesting set of issues, especially with their one particular product line which requires them to produce very expensive equipment. They have to be selective about which clinics they provide these machines to and receive a licensing fee. The question being, who should they give the machines to? The natural answer would be to the biggest clinics because they have more people getting treatments and, therefore, more revenue.

To their credit, they realized that may not be the best approach. They could have a clinic – in a tourist area, for example – that sees mostly “one and done” patients and there’s no lasting value created there. But there might be a smaller clinic elsewhere that has less traffic, yet those customers are really, really loyal. These are the people that come in week after week, month after month. Even though clinic number one brings in more dollars on a short-term basis than clinic two, clinic two may hold more value in the long run from an ROI standpoint and it would be more profitable to reallocate their resources accordingly.

Once again, we go back to the idea of lifetime value. We bring in more financial accountability. We bring in more alignment to the decisions that we’re making about who gets what and even what kind of messaging to use. And, since they have a loyalty program, let’s adjust the parameters of the program to make sure that we’re incentivizing the right kind of behavior that’s going to have a meaningful, measurable financial payoff.

The end result? We’re working to get that case study released soon because they have a very interesting story to tell with some very real, and substantial, financial results.

On the flip side, I read an article in the New York Times about a hotel chain looking to enhance its customer experience by taking a “surprise and delight” approach. What they’re going to do is give a free upgrade to every 20^th guest that checks in, which is going to surprise and delight them. As the person who receives the random discount, is this going to surprise them? Sure, they weren’t expecting that. Is it going to delight them? I’m not sure. Is it going to convert over to lifetime value and consistently make them choose this chain over another? I’m not sure. Show me the money.

Rather than implementing random initiatives, I’d rather engage customers in a more targeted way. As each person checks in, I would prefer to instantly look up their lifetime value and other meaningful behavioral metrics about them, then make the decision about whether we give this person an upgrade and so on. And do it as a formal, controlled experiment. For example, let’s give half the upgrades to high value customers to see if it makes them even more valuable. Let’s measure over a long term how it impacts their ongoing behavior.

I can pretty much guarantee you that the hotel chain didn’t do any of that. They just did this “1 in 20” special, hoping to get some favorable buzz about it, maybe having people make TikTok videos when they win a free upgrade. Ultimately, though, they are merely giving away random upgrades and have nothing to show for it every month.

So, you have to really think through these things. Again, it doesn’t make the incentives any harder to execute but makes them easier to justify in the long run and gives you much better information to work with.

The final installment of CEIR’s interview with Dr. Peter Fader will delve into the potential for a customer centric model in B2B exhibitions and creating the right corporate culture for its success. Learn more about Predict, CEIR’s Annual Exhibition Industry Outlook Conference 2024 here and explore CEIR’s complete library of research here.

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Predict, CEIR’s Annual Exhibition Industry Outlook Conference featured experts from within and outside of the exhibitions industry taking a deep dive into the macro trends and global policies that have real world effects on the business of events. One of this year’s business experts was Dr. Peter Fader, who delivered the keynote, Establishing Competitive Advantage: Implementing a Customer Centricity Model.

Peter is the Frances and Pei-Yuan Chia Professor of Marketing at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His expertise centers around the analysis of behavioral data to understand and forecast customer shopping/purchasing activities. Peter works with firms from a wide range of industries such as telecommunications, financial services, gaming and entertainment, retailing, and pharmaceuticals to focus on customer relationship management, lifetime value of the customer and sales forecasting for new products.

Much of his research highlights the consistent (but often surprising) behavioral patterns that exist across these industries and other seemingly different domains. In addition, Peter co-founded predictive analytics firm Zodiac in 2015, which was sold to Nike in 2018. He then co-founded (and continues to run) Theta to commercialize his more recent work on “customer-based corporate valuation.”

Peter is the author of three books, Customer Centricity: Focus on the Right Customers for Strategic Advantage (2020), The Customer Centricity Playbook with Sarah Toms (2018), and The Customer-Base Audit with Bruce Hardie and Michael Ross (2022). He has also won various awards for his research and teaching accomplishments, including being named by Advertising Age as one of its inaugural “25 Marketing Technology Trailblazers” in 2017 making him the only academic on the list.

In part one of our interview with Peter, he shares his vision for how customer centricity will affect future business and how it plays into business-to-business (B2B) exhibitions.

In your presentation, you noted that the two approaches companies have historically taken to getting customers’ attention consisted of either standing out as the “best in their class” or establishing a reputation as a “good product for a good price.” However, these approaches are no longer as effective due to factors like commoditization, globalization, intensive competitive intelligence, media saturation, well-informed customers, etc.

At what point did the need for a customer centric model become pervasive in consumer business and where do you see the B2B exhibition industry fitting into the timeline/bigger picture?

Peter: I will take some credit for calling attention to this third dimension, this customer centric model, and shouting about it endlessly but there are a couple of very important precedents for it. And it’s not only to give credit where it’s due, but a lot of learning can take place from these examples.

First and foremost is old school direct marketing. I first heard about these ideas from the Franklin Mint, which created a lot of collectible cars, gold-plated monopoly sets and other tchotchkes like that. They didn’t really care what they produced because they were more interested in what their most valuable customers wanted. They are the ones, more than anyone else, who came up with the notion of “lifetime value” and started to really try to measure and leverage it.

You still see a lot of that today with companies like QVC, which is cut from that cloth. They tend to be disparaged because when you hear the term ‘direct marketing’ you think about late night infomercials and think, “Oh, that’s not going to apply to us,” and that may be true. But the practices behind the scenes are actually quite good, so let’s give big credit to the old school direct marketers.

Secondly, there are examples of companies doing this on a one-off basis. Two of the companies I often talk about have similar stories in that they were getting pummeled within their highly competitive industries, and they just couldn’t find their way out through being the best or scaling faster than others. So, they turned to this third dimension out of desperation.

One of them is the Harrah’s Casino chain. They reached a point where they simply could not compete with the newer casinos entering the market. They couldn’t come up with better games and they didn’t have better real estate. They were boxed into a corner and out of pure desperation they hired a Harvard professor, Gary Loveman, who became the CEO.

They rose to the top doing basically all the things that I talk about such as tagging and tracking individual customers, building a really robust loyalty program, and using it to drive not just insights, but real actions. What kinds of games should they have? What kinds of restaurants should they open? What kinds of entertainment should they bring in? That’s customer centricity!

Eventually they bought out Caesar’s Palace/Caesar’s Entertainment, which they still are today. Needless to say, the other casino chains were not going to simply stand by and applaud for them. They said, “We could do it better. We have deeper pockets.” And so it’s been harder for them to hold onto it.

Same exact story with company number two, which was Tesco, the UK-based grocery retailer. In response to struggling to keep up with competitors, they created a loyalty program and rose to the top in similar fashion. Like the previous example, all the others have been playing catch up and doing a pretty good job of it.

Whether companies do this systematically – like the direct marketers – or on their own, what I’ve tried to do is collect a lot of these examples, extract the common and best elements of each one and pull together a more robust, more generalizable approach to this.

There is no reason why these same stories cannot apply just as well in the B2B exhibitions space. I guess B2B exhibitions would be coming into this when the concept is fairly established, but the practices for most companies continue to be very eccentric. They might say the right things, but when it comes down to it the questions become, How much product did you sell? How did you keep your costs down? Are they prioritizing customer lifetime value and customer-based corporate valuation? These factors are rarely put ahead of the product-oriented metrics.

Because of that, I think it’s actually still pretty early stages for this industry. I also think the exhibition space is in a better position to benefit from this model, which is one of the things I kept emphasizing at Predict. B2B exhibitions can apply this concept better than a lot of other industries that are making more noise about it such as pharmaceuticals, retail banking and others because you don’t have a lot of the regulatory barriers. I think you have a lot of room to embrace and maneuver with this strategy.

You have a much more focused target rather than casting a huge net out to the entire universe because you are dealing with a smaller group of people that you can get to know. But you still need these best practices in place to do this effectively. These ideas come naturally to B2B because you understand your customers much better. You have relationships with them. The way it has worked in the past, we could try to be everybody’s best friend but that’s not going to work today.

For example, we take only certain clients to play golf or to the Super Bowl, or whatever else. We’ve often shown that kind of favoritism in B2B. What we haven’t seen on the B2B side that we see in B2C would be the metrics and quantitative accountability that customer lifetime value offers. All too often, who are we taking to the Super Bowl or to play golf? It’s the customers we like better or the ones we’d rather spend time with. I suggest removing that human element and replacing it with a more quantitative approach.

Let’s have the numbers and drive these decisions. And I can offer lots of examples of companies that have done just that. They’ve said, “Now we’re going to hold you accountable about who you take to golf by using customer lifetime value and related metrics.” The customer lifetime value arises on the consumer side, but the differential relationship management arises on the B2B side. Let’s mash them together and enter a new dimension of marketing B2B events.

You define Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) as a prediction of each customer’s profitability over their relationship with a company (past and future). In relation to exhibitions, this translates to 1) how long it will be until an attendee/exhibitor/sponsor has no need to attend my show 2) how many interactions of value they will have at my show and 3) when those interactions happen, how much value is being created for each.

What data points do you recommend show organizers use to determine CLV and how much data does it take to make an effective CLV determination?

Peter: Let me flip that around in terms of how little information do you need? For example, if you give me all of the data you know for each attendee/exhibitor/sponsor such as how often they participated in activations at one of your shows, that’s great. That’s fun. That’s terrific. But it’s also sometimes hard to get that data and hard to manage. It can get difficult to share data due to privacy issues, especially when there is so much data. What we want to do is incentivize people to not only be willing to share information, but to want to do it.

So make it worth their while to use the smart badge, or raise their hand, or engage with the mobile app or loyalty program, or whatever tracking technology we’re talking about. Communicate that they will miss out by not doing so. Zodiac commercialized this with Nike, which was successful in getting customers to actively engage. For instance, at their flagship store in New York they have fun experiential offerings, but you can’t really get the full value out of them unless you have the mobile app loaded and open. They make people want to take advantage of all the fun stuff and get past that understandable hesitation of having their activity tracked.

How little data do we need? I’ve asked these questions almost out of pure academic interest. Do we really need to track a ton of information for each person? What if some of it is missing? What if we have it rolled up so that I don’t know exactly when you went to shows but I know how many shows you attended this year?

I’ve spent the last 10 to 15 years asking more and more of these questions to basically get less and less data. Then I met my Ph.D. student, Dan McCarthy, who became my co-founder of these various companies and was asking the same questions from almost a Wall Street analyst side. If you’re an investor in a company and knocking on their door, there’s no way that company will give you all of its transactional log data. That’s ridiculous! But what would be some aggregate metrics that they would be willing to share that don’t identify any one individual and would really tell you about the health of the company? It turns out that we’ve answered that question in our academic research.

The answer for B2B exhibitions would be, how many unique people have shown up at one of your events in a given year? And among those people who showed up, how many events on average did they attend? That’s it. Give me those two numbers rolled up in an aggregate level either on a year-by-year basis, or maybe a quarter-by-quarter basis, and I could reverse engineer it to run the same exact models that I could run if I had all of the granular data for individual by individual, event by event.

Which leads me to the Holy Trinity of data, RFM, which stands for recency, frequency and monetary value. Our forefathers in direct marketing gave us this rubric and I’ve been parroting it for 40 years since. I’ve also been applying it to all kinds of bizarre domains where you wouldn’t think it has any relevance at all. Things like animal tracking, library book borrowing and doctors without borders – all kinds of domains that you’d think would be very different than people buying collectible cars and gold-plated monopoly sets, etc. RFM is the natural answer.

In your industry, questions such as, when did you last attend an event? (Over some reasonable horizon, let’s say, the last two or three years.) How many total events did you show up at? How much money did you spend, or how much time? I haven’t analyzed the data for this industry, but I can guarantee you that RFM would be incredibly predictive of how many more events attendees will go to and over what horizon.

It still requires individual level data for each person; we could roll it up even further and achieve very little loss in model performance. Without getting too deep into that, I propose that you don’t have to collect a thousand data points. I have found that we can get just as far with very little data. Which is great because it makes it much easier to implement strategies and compare results across different events.

Stay tuned for Part 2 in which Dr. Peter Fader will discuss increasing your ROI and impacting customer behavior. Learn more about his research here and find CEIR’s latest industry research here.

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